What To Expect From Wednesday’s Report On Economic Growth

President Donald Trump’s tariffs have been slow to affect hard economic data, but that could change Wednesday when the import taxes could blow a hole in the Gross Domestic Product figures.

Wednesday’s scheduled GDP report is likely to show that the key measure of the country’s economic output rose at an annual rate of just 0.4% in the first quarter, according to the median forecast from a survey of economists conducted by the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. That would be down from 2.4% in the last quarter of 2024 and the slowest growth since 2022.

Economists said the sharp slowdown in growth will likely reflect the impact of a surge of imports: People raced to buy things from overseas before President Donald Trump’s tariffs took effect, and imports subtract from the GDP.

Some forecasters think the drop will be even more drastic than the consensus and expect the economy to shrink for the first time since 2022. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDP Now tool, which calculates the GDP based on economic data as it is published, showed the GDP shrinking at a 2.5% annual rate in the first quarter.

The GDP report would be one of the first “hard data” indicators to show the impact of Trump’s slew of tariffs against U.S. trading partners, which began in February and reached a fever pitch in April. Surveys have shown businesses and individuals growing pessimistic about the economy due to the tariffs, but key economic indicators, including unemployment and inflation, have stayed resilient thus far.