Why Smart Retirees Are Abandoning Dividends and Buy-and-Hold Before the Next Market Storm » TheTechnicalTraders

If you’re over 50 and relying on dividend stocks or a buy-and-hold strategy to carry you through retirement, it may be time to reassess. These methods have long been considered cornerstones of retirement investing. But when closely examined, they reveal serious limitations, particularly in today’s volatile and fast-changing markets.

The landscape has changed. Economic cycles are sharper, recoveries more uneven, and the margin for error during retirement is shrinking. Withdrawing income during downturns or waiting years for a portfolio to recover can have long-term consequences.

What many investors are realizing is that traditional approaches may no longer provide the balance of protection and growth needed. A growing number are turning to tactical models like Asset Revesting — not because they seek higher risk, but because they want a method designed to protect first, and grow second.

The Dividend Myth: Income at the Expense of Your Capital

Dividend stocks have a reputation for being stable and dependable. They offer the appeal of ongoing income, which can seem ideal in retirement. But the risk often lies beneath the surface, especially during market downturns.

When a company faces shrinking revenues due to economic slowdowns, industry disruptions, or market-wide declines, its dividend is often one of the first things to be reduced or eliminated. Once that happens, investor confidence can vanish, triggering sharp price declines.

This scenario has played out many times in previous bear markets. Some widely held dividend stocks lost more than half their value while simultaneously cutting payouts. The result can be a double blow — lost income and lost capital. In fact, during previous bear markets, some “safe” dividend names fell 30%, 50%, even 70% — while cutting or suspending payouts.

Rather than serving as a cushion, these stocks can expose retirees to more risk than expected. As one of my Adaptive Compounding Strategy (ACS) members put it:

“If I didn’t follow your signals, I’d have ridden those dividend stocks down just like before. Instead, I moved to safety early and preserved capital — something I never could’ve done on my own.”

In retirement, stability matters more than yield. It’s not just about collecting dividends; it’s about keeping the underlying value of your portfolio intact.

The Emotional Toll of Market Timing and Buy-and-Hold

Two widely used strategies — market timing and buy-and-hold — often take investors down paths of unnecessary stress and underperformance.

The Challenge with Timing:

Trying to “buy the dip” often turns into guessing. Investors enter too early, markets continue to fall, and they exit out of fear, only to miss the recovery later. It’s a costly cycle.

Even missing a small number of the market’s best days can drastically reduce long-term returns. But predicting when those days will occur is nearly impossible.

The Reality of Buy-and-Hold:

Buy-and-hold is designed for long-term growth, but it requires a tolerance for large, sometimes prolonged drawdowns. Recoveries can take years, and those years matter a great deal for retirees drawing income.

Many who retire during or just after a market decline face the risk of locking in losses that may not be recovered. Inflation, lifestyle adjustments, and market uncertainty compound the pressure.

“I used to think buy-and-hold was safe… until I saw how long it took just to get back to even. With ACS, I’m no longer stuck hoping. I’m adapting. I’m protected.”

The emotional strain from both strategies — the anxiety, second-guessing, and financial setbacks — can be draining, especially when retirement income is on the line.

Enter Asset Revesting: The Strategy That Prioritizes Protection First

Asset Revesting offers a different perspective. It’s not based on prediction or passive hope. It’s a rules-based, tactical approach that follows market behavior using technical indicators and pattern recognition.

The core principle is simple: allocate to assets that are rising in value, and avoid those in decline. The strategy doesn’t try to time tops and bottoms. Instead, it focuses on strength and safety, rotating between equities, bonds, cash, and commodities based on measurable signals.

Key characteristics of Asset Revesting include:

• Shifting capital toward the strongest-performing asset classes.
• Avoiding high-risk environments by stepping aside into cash or stable assets.
• Using technical triggers to exit positions before major downturns.
• Reducing emotion and guesswork through a repeatable, logic-based process.

The goal is not to outperform every year, but to protect capital during downturns and compound steadily during favorable conditions. Over time, this approach can help reduce the length and severity of recovery periods — something retirees appreciate more than anyone.

Why This Matters More Than Ever

For those in or near retirement, the stakes are high. There’s less time to rebuild after setbacks, and income needs can’t always be postponed.

Experiencing a large drawdown early in retirement can lead to a phenomenon known as “sequence of returns risk,” where withdrawals compound the damage and recovery becomes even harder.

With market cycles becoming more compressed and volatile, the importance of minimizing downside risk is growing. Having a plan that adjusts — instead of just enduring — is becoming essential.

One ACS member shared a personal story that underscores this point:

“We’d be down £250,000 if we hadn’t listened. Now I’m just grateful to be on the right side of the trade — and ready for the next opportunity.”

It’s not about beating the market every quarter. It’s about being prepared when the environment changes — and ensuring your retirement doesn’t derail because of avoidable losses.

The Bottom Line: Capital Lost Is Time Lost

When a portfolio loses value, it’s not just money that’s lost — it’s time. Every year spent waiting to recover is a year that could have been used to grow.

Many retirees say they would trade higher short-term returns for more peace of mind. That’s where a strategy like Asset Revesting fits — prioritizing capital preservation, limiting drawdowns, and seeking compounding during favorable cycles.

This shift in focus — from chasing returns to avoiding deep losses — is what allows retirees to stay invested, stay calm, and maintain their lifestyle.

Moving Forward

While every investor’s situation is unique, the broader takeaway is clear: traditional strategies carry risks that are often overlooked, especially for those in later stages of life. Understanding these risks — and being open to tactical solutions — can help provide greater financial confidence.

There’s no perfect strategy. But there are methods that align better with specific life stages and goals. For many, Asset Revesting has become one of those methods — not because it promises quick gains, but because it offers a more stable foundation.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Investment Officer
TheTechnicalTraders.com

P.S. For those interested in learning more about the technical and psychological principles behind this approach, the Asset Revesting Book is a helpful resource. It outlines the logic and mechanics behind the strategy and how it differs from conventional models.

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