Whether It Passes or Not, Trump’s Tax Bill Is Already Impacting Mortgage Rates

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How the Tax Bill Is Impacting the Bond Market

Though mortgage rates are influenced by a complicated web of factors, one of the most prominent impacts comes from movement in the U.S. bond market—and specifically, changes to the yield of 10-year Treasurys. That effect showed up today as investors react to congressional deliberations of President Donald Trump’s proposed tax bill.

Since experts say passing the bill could inflate the federal deficit because it would extend substantial tax cuts and boost government spending for years, investors are concerned about its potential impact on the economy. As a result, major stock indexes were down today, while the 10-year Treasury yield surged 11 basis points. That’s the highest yield since February.

What We’re Seeing in Mortgage Rates Today

Treasurys shooting up took mortgage rates along for the ride today. Per the Zillow Mortgage API at 5:00 p.m. ET, real-time quotes for 30-year new purchase loans had climbed an average of 5 basis points by this afternoon, pushing the average up to 7.10%.

Though a 5-point rise is not by itself significant, it builds on a slow upward trend of the last three weeks—the average was as low as 6.87% in the last days of April.

Even more notable is that 7.10% is just a few basis points shy of the one-year high of 7.14%. If the flagship average surpasses that mark, it will the highest rate average we’ve seen since May 2, 2024.

See our coverage tomorrow for the final Wednesday rate average, for 30-year loans as well as other loan types, including refinance loans.

How We Track the Best Mortgage Rates

The national and state averages cited above are provided as is via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% (i.e., a down payment of at least 20%) and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range. The resulting rates represent what borrowers should expect when receiving quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates. © Zillow, Inc., 2025. Use is subject to the Zillow Terms of Use.